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Upcoming Major Cool Down

all right hello guys how's it going in

today's video we're going to be talking

about a major cooldown that is coming to

the eastern and central united states

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pinned comment down below

alright now for today's comment of the

day i wanna know how do you think that

this upcoming november is gonna go we're

already looking ahead towards the month

of november

do you think it's gonna be colder or

warmer than normal let me know where

you're at as well because that's gonna

be important obviously

and i'll be picking one of those

comments for tomorrow's comment of the

day all right now let's get into this

video and first things first we're going

to talk about how we're going to go from

a temperature pattern that looks like

this

on october 11th which is today to this

on october 18th which is you know

approximately a week from now

all right so first things first let's

take it back to october 11th real quick

and this is today so we're dealing with

some warmer than normal conditions for

the eastern and central united states

unless you're really far north up there

in the northern great lakes or

interior new england states and even

then you're

approximately i would say slightly below

normal temperatures nothing crazy yet

so you're still going to be dealing with

much colder than normal conditions

compared to what you're dealing with

right now

what we're going to do is we're actually

just going to move on towards the 14th

which is when we're going to see a big

change in the pattern so we're going to

be kind of stuck in this warmer pattern

for a few days now and then

towards the 14th we're going to see a

bit of a change

now taking a look at october 14th as you

can see

we're dealing with the near normal

conditions here for the eastern united

states with some lighter blues mixed in

which is actually going to be the areas

that are dealing with the slightly below

normal

temperatures and this is going to feel

quite pleasant you've actually been

dealing with

the warmer than normal conditions for

quite a while now but we're going to see

a good swath of those states actually

enter the blue

areas there which is going to be quite

pleasant like i said before and

down there for the southeast we do have

a bit of an area of some well above

normal temperatures that is going to

move out

in a few days rest assured we actually

see a lot of cold up there for south

central canada that is going to be our

massive cooldown eventually

and as we move towards the 15th of

october this is gonna be the morning

hours

of thursday october 15th you can see a

lot of that warmth returns to the

eastern united states

just ahead of our trough which you can

see has now completely entered the north

central united states and the rockies

probably going to have a snowstorm that

comes around that time frame as well for

a lot of those regions that's usually

how it goes when these deep troughs come

in if you see a low pressure system

running along the southern side of that

trough you will see a lot of snow

associated with this type of a pattern

so i do anticipate that that is

possible now what we're going to do is

we're actually just going to move on and

we're going to see this trough

by the 16th which is going to be a

friday fully

just dive into the central and eastern

united states with the well

below normal temperatures

all right so here we are taking a look

at october 16th and as you can see this

is going to be the high temperatures so

this is crucial to know because in a

second we're actually going to take a

look at the actual temperatures

but you can see we do have a lot of

those purples and pinks around that is

our well

below normal temperatures fully engulfed

into

the north central united states all the

way down to the south central united

states in areas like the appalachian

mountains

the mid-atlantic states dealing with

those purples that is the far

below normal temperatures so let's go

ahead and take a look at those actual

temperatures for the same frame

and as you can see take a look at that

many 40s

throughout the northern half of the

united states there especially the great

lakes the upper midwest dealing with the

mid to low

30s now this brings me actually to a

little bit of a blast from the past

back about a month ago when we were

dealing with those very big cooldowns in

september

i mentioned to you guys that if we get a

cool a cooler pattern in mid-october

about a month from the time i was

talking then uh that it would be

significantly colder even if it was the

same

departure from normal even if it was you

know in september and

now so a whole month apart both if they

were both five degrees below normal

that's

a massive difference just because of how

cold you are uh because we're much

closer to winter obviously

and sure enough here we are this isn't

even as cold compared to normal as we

were seeing in september and it's much

colder

actual temperatures because of the fact

that we're in mid-october as opposed to

mid-september that should be obvious

that as we get colder

into the further into the winter seasons

that we're going to be dealing with some

colder temperatures

even normal temperatures in october are

colder than the below normal

temperatures in september

just because that's how far our average

temperature is diving down

this time of year about 10 degrees per

month is the average rule of thumb

and we can see along the east coast many

50s lower 50s

even some lower 60s if you're along the

immediate coast you have to remember the

atlantic ocean is still

somewhat warm it's going to take a while

to cool down so if you're along that

coast it's going to be harder for you to

cool down a lot

i deal with this i'm very close to the

coast so we deal with this very

frequently where areas inland have a

higher

uh they fluctuate a lot more with their

temperatures because they don't have

that water

influencing the air temperature the west

coast deals with this a lot if you live

there you know that your temperature is

greatly

influenced by those water temperatures

offshore especially the west coast

because the winds are moving from the

ocean

if you're on the east coast the winds

are usually moving from the land but

still the the water temperature

influences it a bit

so what we're going to do here is we're

going to move on we're going to move

towards october 17th where things are

actually going to get a little bit

colder for some reason some regions are

going to be a little bit

warmer but really for the most part a

lot of these eastern regions are going

to be a little bit

colder than the 16th

all right now here we are taking a look

at the 17th and as you can see those

purples have actually moved mostly into

the ohio valley by this point into a lot

of the appalachian mountains as well

uh so this is where our well below

normal temperatures are set up for the

most part

and let's just go ahead real quickly and

look at those actual temperatures for

this frame as well

and as you can see the mid 40s even

lower 40s here for a lot of the ohio

valley definitely cooling down

significantly for a lot of these regions

again the eastern seaboard is mostly

lower 60s upper 50s depending on how

far north you are like maine is probably

the upper 50s

and then virginia north carolina south

carolina more like mid to low 60s so

obviously the further south you go the

warmer it's going to be by a little bit

there

all right but most of those greens are

indicating lower 50s 40s

and even 30s showing up there for the

upper midwest still

a lot of the great lakes as well dealing

with the same or similar conditions

let's move it to october 18th here which

is going to be a sunday and as you can

see we still have those purples around

so this is going to be a good

uh long-lived cooldown actually so we're

still dealing with those purples for a

lot of the eastern regions

of the united states by october 18th

let's just take it straight to the 19th

here as well which is going to be a

monday

and as you can see those purples are

still around it is moving a little bit

further east here on this model we

obviously are

now moved into about 2 200 hours out

so we are going to see this fluctuate a

little bit over the coming days as we

get closer

uh to this event happening you will see

some changes

in the outlook but we're right in that

range where we're pretty confident this

cooldown

as a whole is going to occur it's really

just about the

um more about the specifics with it is

what could fluctuate at this point

all right now very quickly here is

october 20th which is going to be our

last high temperature frame of the

of the entire model run and the cool

temperatures are still around by october

20th

indicating that we're probably going to

close out october on an entirely cold

note for the central and eastern united

states as a whole

all right now what we're going to do

here is we're going to move on and we're

going to take a look at our cfs

v2 model on our weekly increments so

we're going to take a look at first off

this upcoming week

the week after that and then the final

week of october just take a look at what

those temperature patterns are going to

look like

so first things first here we are taking

a look at this upcoming week so the 11th

through the 18th which is

right around we're going to start to see

the cold is 16th 17th and 18th

but most of this one week period is

going to be

dealing with the warmer than normal

conditions so that's why we see those

reds around

so really we're going to have a warm uh

first

i would say two-thirds to this week

obviously so that's going to overall

make it more of a

a red red week sorry and here we are

taking a look at the 18th through the

25th

and you can see a huge flip positive pna

indicated by those warmer than normal

conditions out there in the west

and then we see plenty of cold here for

the eastern united states especially

along the gulf coast up through the

appalachian mountains the

mid-atlantic even in through the ohio

valley in the northeast so basically the

entire

northeast and eastern united states i'd

say the eastern third

of the united states at least dealing

with these cool colder than normal

conditions

and this is actually quite significant

for a one week period pretty

cold compared to normal and then here we

are taking a look at that final week so

the

25th through the 1st of november so we

do get one day from november you can

only look at this on seven day

increments so

uh we pretty much had to allow that one

day to sneak in there but

as you can see there is still going to

be cold conditions around for the

eastern united states and still very

warm conditions out there

in the west and really uh

you know i don't really know if it's

going to set up exactly this way i think

it's probably either going to be colder

than normal for the entire east or not

i think this model says it's 12 runs

combined and then four mo

members this is a lot of averaging out

happening here by this point

uh and i've talked about that before

with ensemble models how if you get

very far out it really starts to average

out and really just

go very conservative it's not very

aggressive with that

outlook so you start to see things that

aren't really going to happen but it's

more of a safe call i guess you could

say

so as of right now this model is leaning

towards colder than normal conditions

for the 25th through the first

but also there is that slim chance that

we see the warmer than normal conditions

also for the eastern united states

anyway for today's comment of the day i

asked you guys which month do you think

for this upcoming winter is going to be

the coldest and snowiest

and karen snyder said february very

straightforward there

but i think it's most likely that yeah

february out of all three of the winter

months would be the coldest and snowiest

we've seen

year in and year out we've seen the

winter get kind of later and later and

later

and last longer and longer so usually

our winners have been lasting from like

the last half of january through into

like the last half of april

uh as opposed to you know december

january february

it's been really weird lately so i have

to imagine that it's going to be

somewhat close to how it has been in

years past

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