When is it going to cool down
Upcoming Major Cool Down
all right hello guys how's it going in
today's video we're going to be talking
about a major cooldown that is coming to
the eastern and central united states
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pinned comment down below
alright now for today's comment of the
day i wanna know how do you think that
this upcoming november is gonna go we're
already looking ahead towards the month
of november
do you think it's gonna be colder or
warmer than normal let me know where
you're at as well because that's gonna
be important obviously
and i'll be picking one of those
comments for tomorrow's comment of the
day all right now let's get into this
video and first things first we're going
to talk about how we're going to go from
a temperature pattern that looks like
this
on october 11th which is today to this
on october 18th which is you know
approximately a week from now
all right so first things first let's
take it back to october 11th real quick
and this is today so we're dealing with
some warmer than normal conditions for
the eastern and central united states
unless you're really far north up there
in the northern great lakes or
interior new england states and even
then you're
approximately i would say slightly below
normal temperatures nothing crazy yet
so you're still going to be dealing with
much colder than normal conditions
compared to what you're dealing with
right now
what we're going to do is we're actually
just going to move on towards the 14th
which is when we're going to see a big
change in the pattern so we're going to
be kind of stuck in this warmer pattern
for a few days now and then
towards the 14th we're going to see a
bit of a change
now taking a look at october 14th as you
can see
we're dealing with the near normal
conditions here for the eastern united
states with some lighter blues mixed in
which is actually going to be the areas
that are dealing with the slightly below
normal
temperatures and this is going to feel
quite pleasant you've actually been
dealing with
the warmer than normal conditions for
quite a while now but we're going to see
a good swath of those states actually
enter the blue
areas there which is going to be quite
pleasant like i said before and
down there for the southeast we do have
a bit of an area of some well above
normal temperatures that is going to
move out
in a few days rest assured we actually
see a lot of cold up there for south
central canada that is going to be our
massive cooldown eventually
and as we move towards the 15th of
october this is gonna be the morning
hours
of thursday october 15th you can see a
lot of that warmth returns to the
eastern united states
just ahead of our trough which you can
see has now completely entered the north
central united states and the rockies
probably going to have a snowstorm that
comes around that time frame as well for
a lot of those regions that's usually
how it goes when these deep troughs come
in if you see a low pressure system
running along the southern side of that
trough you will see a lot of snow
associated with this type of a pattern
so i do anticipate that that is
possible now what we're going to do is
we're actually just going to move on and
we're going to see this trough
by the 16th which is going to be a
friday fully
just dive into the central and eastern
united states with the well
below normal temperatures
all right so here we are taking a look
at october 16th and as you can see this
is going to be the high temperatures so
this is crucial to know because in a
second we're actually going to take a
look at the actual temperatures
but you can see we do have a lot of
those purples and pinks around that is
our well
below normal temperatures fully engulfed
into
the north central united states all the
way down to the south central united
states in areas like the appalachian
mountains
the mid-atlantic states dealing with
those purples that is the far
below normal temperatures so let's go
ahead and take a look at those actual
temperatures for the same frame
and as you can see take a look at that
many 40s
throughout the northern half of the
united states there especially the great
lakes the upper midwest dealing with the
mid to low
30s now this brings me actually to a
little bit of a blast from the past
back about a month ago when we were
dealing with those very big cooldowns in
september
i mentioned to you guys that if we get a
cool a cooler pattern in mid-october
about a month from the time i was
talking then uh that it would be
significantly colder even if it was the
same
departure from normal even if it was you
know in september and
now so a whole month apart both if they
were both five degrees below normal
that's
a massive difference just because of how
cold you are uh because we're much
closer to winter obviously
and sure enough here we are this isn't
even as cold compared to normal as we
were seeing in september and it's much
colder
actual temperatures because of the fact
that we're in mid-october as opposed to
mid-september that should be obvious
that as we get colder
into the further into the winter seasons
that we're going to be dealing with some
colder temperatures
even normal temperatures in october are
colder than the below normal
temperatures in september
just because that's how far our average
temperature is diving down
this time of year about 10 degrees per
month is the average rule of thumb
and we can see along the east coast many
50s lower 50s
even some lower 60s if you're along the
immediate coast you have to remember the
atlantic ocean is still
somewhat warm it's going to take a while
to cool down so if you're along that
coast it's going to be harder for you to
cool down a lot
i deal with this i'm very close to the
coast so we deal with this very
frequently where areas inland have a
higher
uh they fluctuate a lot more with their
temperatures because they don't have
that water
influencing the air temperature the west
coast deals with this a lot if you live
there you know that your temperature is
greatly
influenced by those water temperatures
offshore especially the west coast
because the winds are moving from the
ocean
if you're on the east coast the winds
are usually moving from the land but
still the the water temperature
influences it a bit
so what we're going to do here is we're
going to move on we're going to move
towards october 17th where things are
actually going to get a little bit
colder for some reason some regions are
going to be a little bit
warmer but really for the most part a
lot of these eastern regions are going
to be a little bit
colder than the 16th
all right now here we are taking a look
at the 17th and as you can see those
purples have actually moved mostly into
the ohio valley by this point into a lot
of the appalachian mountains as well
uh so this is where our well below
normal temperatures are set up for the
most part
and let's just go ahead real quickly and
look at those actual temperatures for
this frame as well
and as you can see the mid 40s even
lower 40s here for a lot of the ohio
valley definitely cooling down
significantly for a lot of these regions
again the eastern seaboard is mostly
lower 60s upper 50s depending on how
far north you are like maine is probably
the upper 50s
and then virginia north carolina south
carolina more like mid to low 60s so
obviously the further south you go the
warmer it's going to be by a little bit
there
all right but most of those greens are
indicating lower 50s 40s
and even 30s showing up there for the
upper midwest still
a lot of the great lakes as well dealing
with the same or similar conditions
let's move it to october 18th here which
is going to be a sunday and as you can
see we still have those purples around
so this is going to be a good
uh long-lived cooldown actually so we're
still dealing with those purples for a
lot of the eastern regions
of the united states by october 18th
let's just take it straight to the 19th
here as well which is going to be a
monday
and as you can see those purples are
still around it is moving a little bit
further east here on this model we
obviously are
now moved into about 2 200 hours out
so we are going to see this fluctuate a
little bit over the coming days as we
get closer
uh to this event happening you will see
some changes
in the outlook but we're right in that
range where we're pretty confident this
cooldown
as a whole is going to occur it's really
just about the
um more about the specifics with it is
what could fluctuate at this point
all right now very quickly here is
october 20th which is going to be our
last high temperature frame of the
of the entire model run and the cool
temperatures are still around by october
20th
indicating that we're probably going to
close out october on an entirely cold
note for the central and eastern united
states as a whole
all right now what we're going to do
here is we're going to move on and we're
going to take a look at our cfs
v2 model on our weekly increments so
we're going to take a look at first off
this upcoming week
the week after that and then the final
week of october just take a look at what
those temperature patterns are going to
look like
so first things first here we are taking
a look at this upcoming week so the 11th
through the 18th which is
right around we're going to start to see
the cold is 16th 17th and 18th
but most of this one week period is
going to be
dealing with the warmer than normal
conditions so that's why we see those
reds around
so really we're going to have a warm uh
first
i would say two-thirds to this week
obviously so that's going to overall
make it more of a
a red red week sorry and here we are
taking a look at the 18th through the
25th
and you can see a huge flip positive pna
indicated by those warmer than normal
conditions out there in the west
and then we see plenty of cold here for
the eastern united states especially
along the gulf coast up through the
appalachian mountains the
mid-atlantic even in through the ohio
valley in the northeast so basically the
entire
northeast and eastern united states i'd
say the eastern third
of the united states at least dealing
with these cool colder than normal
conditions
and this is actually quite significant
for a one week period pretty
cold compared to normal and then here we
are taking a look at that final week so
the
25th through the 1st of november so we
do get one day from november you can
only look at this on seven day
increments so
uh we pretty much had to allow that one
day to sneak in there but
as you can see there is still going to
be cold conditions around for the
eastern united states and still very
warm conditions out there
in the west and really uh
you know i don't really know if it's
going to set up exactly this way i think
it's probably either going to be colder
than normal for the entire east or not
i think this model says it's 12 runs
combined and then four mo
members this is a lot of averaging out
happening here by this point
uh and i've talked about that before
with ensemble models how if you get
very far out it really starts to average
out and really just
go very conservative it's not very
aggressive with that
outlook so you start to see things that
aren't really going to happen but it's
more of a safe call i guess you could
say
so as of right now this model is leaning
towards colder than normal conditions
for the 25th through the first
but also there is that slim chance that
we see the warmer than normal conditions
also for the eastern united states
anyway for today's comment of the day i
asked you guys which month do you think
for this upcoming winter is going to be
the coldest and snowiest
and karen snyder said february very
straightforward there
but i think it's most likely that yeah
february out of all three of the winter
months would be the coldest and snowiest
we've seen
year in and year out we've seen the
winter get kind of later and later and
later
and last longer and longer so usually
our winners have been lasting from like
the last half of january through into
like the last half of april
uh as opposed to you know december
january february
it's been really weird lately so i have
to imagine that it's going to be
somewhat close to how it has been in
years past
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