it

What to expect on Election Day as votes are cast and counted

and abc news political director rick

klein joins me now for more on this rick

more than 94 million votes have

already been cast that's more than 68 of

all of the votes counted in 2016. so

when you look

at these early indicators polling

turnout voter registrations absentee

ballot requests

what's your takeaway diane there's no

way to look at all the data

and not come away with the conclusion

that joe biden has a lead right now he

has built up a significant lead

in polling but more importantly an early

vote over a range of states

the question though is what happens to

that lead on election day when we expect

donald trump to vastly outperform joe

biden

most of his voters the majority of his

voters are likely election day voters

and to see

the sights and the sounds those massive

rallies that is those are the sights and

sounds of enthusiasm

uh the hope for president trump is that

all those polls are wrong and they're

proven wrong

by massive massive turnout that in some

way matches the early vote turnout

people are engaged in this election

and now donald trump just needs his

people to show up in those same kind of

numbers

how is each candidate most likely to hit

the 270 electoral votes they need yeah

it's my favorite question diane i spent

so much time with the map uh

and it's a stubborn map and if you look

at the donald trump's map from 2016

he really needs to do what he did last

time and if he can just hold

michigan wisconsin pennsylvania boom

he's president all over again

the flip of that is that a lot of

democrats and republicans both believe

that michigan

and wisconsin are probably going to the

democratic candidate to joe biden and

then

joe biden has a lot of paths he could

win pennsylvania win the presidency he

could win arizona and maybe just another

electoral vote or a smaller state and

win the presidency if florida would put

him well over the top

so would georgia so would north carolina

so would texas so there are a couple of

different paths

for joe biden one involves the the

so-called blue wall those upper

midwestern states just bringing them

back home to the democrats

the other some combination of sun belt

states

any of those make him president there's

only a few places

that donald trump is really playing

offense there's still some optimism

about minnesota maybe even nevada but

other than that

trump really just needs to cling on to

that map that delivered him the

presidency

what are the odds this becomes a

contested outcome and how would that

play out

yeah the scenario where it becomes

contested is that we don't have

any candidate either candidate over 270

votes immediately

uh and it's very possible if not likely

that we're not going to have a winner

declared by news organizations like ours

in in michigan in wisconsin and

especially

pennsylvania where they're not even

beginning to count all of those absentee

votes until tomorrow until sometime

tomorrow so

it's very possible that we're going to

go a couple of days without knowing a

winner there now

maybe it doesn't matter because joe

biden has won enough other places that

it's clear that he either has

or will get 270 electoral votes but

if we are waiting on one state and that

state is close

that's how you get into the contested

election scenario and of course

president trump

has been saying that that's a very real

possibility and every time we hear that

explain it's always if biden is able to

win enough states then

we may have an answer uh it seems like

that path doesn't exist so much for

president trump why not

well the bottom line is the president

won very narrowly last time

and if he wins again he's going to win

very narrowly again

so the he he's going to put new states

in play that change

the calculus he needs to win at least

one of those three big midwestern states

to hold on there aren't a lot of other

options for him so it just is it's also

a function a bit of the time zones that

uh the early states on the east coast

that have earlier poll closing times

like florida like north carolina like

georgia

they are likely to have a substantial

number of votes earlier in the evening

so they give us an indication of where

the election is headed early on

and president trump is saying that

ballots should not be counted after

election day but we know that some

states do allow that so

how much could that delay the results

coming in and does the president have

any

say in that he does not and it needs to

be clear states run elections

states have their own laws around how

ballots are counted when they can be

received when they can be counted

and never in the history of the country

diane has it been the case that every

single election day

every single vote has been counted at

the end of election night there's

nothing magical about the stroke of

midnight

what happens is that every state gets

votes in different batches

it's very localized at the county level

the precinct level and they filter up to

state boards of election the certified

results

take weeks to come back in the meantime

media organizations like us at abc news

are looking at the data and making

projections based on that data and

that's exactly what we're going to do

we know though that several states are

telling us already

we're not going to have all of the vote

or a substantial amount of the vote in

on election night sometimes

it'll be the wee hours of wednesday

morning others are saying it could be

until

daylight wednesday or even thursday or

friday before you have a complete

portrait now the president can complain

about that

he can send lawyers to court about that

but the state laws are the state laws

and

state by state as we've talked to

election experts election officials

they tell us they don't care what the

president says about this

all right we'll see how it all plays out

soon enough one day to go

until the final votes rick klein we

appreciate your analysis as always thank

you

thanks diane hi everyone george

stephanopoulos here thanks for checking

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